Gold (XAUUSD) Update: Triangle → Zigzag Complete? What Would Confirm the Turn

Quick take

• The move down appears to be a 3-wave zigzag (A–B–C).

• Clue: Wave B formed a contracting triangle, and Wave C terminated at the 61.8% projection of Wave A (~3890)—a classic termination zone after a B-wave triangle.

• If correct, the corrective phase may be finished, and gold is preparing to impulse higher.

Why it matters

C-waves that terminate at 61.8% from a B-wave triangle often mark the last leg of a correction. When the next motive structure starts, the first impulsive swings tend to travel quickly—missing them can skew R:R. This is where swing entries often set up best.

Structure at a glance

• Primary count: Completed A–B–C down (zigzag).

  • B = triangle (energy storage)

  • C = terminates at 0.618 × A (~3890)

• Implication: Start of Wave (5) up or at least a strong impulsive leg within a larger uptrend.

Validation & targets

• Validation trigger: Break and hold above 4140 (the B-wave end).

• Upside targets:

  • T1: 4400 (measured move / prior resistance)

  • T2: 4550–4600 (cluster of fib extensions & prior reaction zone)

Alternate scenario

• W-X-Y combination: Current lift is the X wave, to be followed by another A-B-C down that pushes beneath the recent C low (~3906).

• Tell: Choppy overlaps up from the lows that fail to break/hold above 4140, plus momentum divergences on H1/H4.

How to trade it (education, not advice)

Option A: Confirmation entry

1. Wait for an H1 close above 4140.

2. Look for a pullback based on the completion of an Elliott Wave corrective structure.

3. Invalidation: below 3890 (beneath the pullback base).

4. Targets: 4500 first, 4550–4600 stretch.

   • Typical R:R: ~2:1 to 3:1 if managed on structure.

Option B: Aggressive early entry

1. Scale in on higher-low formations above 3890 while price respects the C-wave low.

2. Hard invalidation: below 3890 (C low / 0.618 projection).

What I’m watching on the chart

• Impulse criteria from the low: expanding ranges, shallow 2nds, clean 3rd-wave acceleration.

• A sustained break of the base channel

• Momentum: H1/H4 MACD or RSI shifting to bullish regime (pullbacks hold midline).

• Volume/participation: Stronger during London/NY opens—ideal timing for breakouts.

Risk management (read this twice)

• Keep risk per idea ≤1%; add only if the structure confirms (not because the price has moved).

• If 4140 breaks and holds, trail below higher swing lows to stay with a potential impulsive sequence.

• If price fails 3885 and rolls over in overlaps, respect the W-X-Y alternate and step aside or flip bias on fresh signals.

Bottom line

• Bullish path: A clean push through 4140 turns the 3-wave decline into a confirmed correction with 4400 → 4600 in play.

  Explore more in-depth charts and wave counts in our full Market Insights section.